In recent months, Egypt and Somalia have significantly strengthened their military ties, a move that has escalated tensions in the Horn of Africa. This growing cooperation comes after Egypt deployed troops to Somalia and sent military equipment, including advanced weapons and drones, to support Somalia's defense efforts. This collaboration was solidified through a defense pact signed between the two countries in August 2024, during a meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud​.

The deepening alliance between Egypt and Somalia has alarmed Ethiopia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has publicly voiced his concerns, viewing Egypt’s actions as a direct threat to Ethiopia's sovereignty. The tension is compounded by Ethiopia's longstanding dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile. Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for its water supply, has opposed the dam, fearing it will reduce water flow downstream​

In response to Egypt’s increased military presence in Somalia, Abiy Ahmed issued a stern warning, stating that Ethiopia will "fiercely defend its sovereignty" and will not tolerate any attempts to destabilize the region. Ethiopia is particularly concerned about Egypt’s military drills planned for September 2024, which are seen as a show of force directed against Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Prime Minister has made it clear that Ethiopia will not allow any country to violate its territorial integrity​

One of the main triggers of this growing tension is a controversial deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which grants Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s ports. Somalia has strongly condemned the deal, viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty. The Egyptian-Somali military alliance is seen by some analysts as a way for Somalia to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region, particularly in the strategic Red Sea and Gulf of Aden areas.

As the situation evolves, there is a growing concern that the Horn of Africa could become a proxy battlefield, with Egypt and Somalia on one side and Ethiopia on the other. Experts warn that if the tensions continue to escalate, they could destabilize the region further, affecting peace and security across the Horn of Africa​.